AP25796241 – Development of an intelligent renewable energy forecasting tool to solve the electricity shortage and network stability in the almaty region

Objective of the project – Creation of a highly efficient system for forecasting the generation of renewable energy sources using artificial intelligence methods and mathematical modeling. This will allow for an accurate assessment of the expected production of solar and wind energy, which in turn will ensure the optimal integration of renewable energy sources into the existing energy system, minimizing the risks of network fluctuations and energy losses.

Relevance: Currently, the issue of electricity shortage and grid stability in the Almaty region is highly relevant. High energy consumption and significant transmission losses aggravate the situation. In addition, the integration of renewable energy sources creates additional challenges for maintaining grid stability. Therefore, the development of intelligent forecasting tools for RES and efficient energy system management is of great importance.

Scientific supervisor: PhD, Zhannat Kayyrkyzy Bekbolatova.

Expected and achieved results: By the end of the project, an online tool with commercialization potential will be developed to forecast solar and wind energy, considering the climatic specifics of the Almaty region. Initial forecasting models (ARMA) were created and evaluated using RMSE metrics. Solutions were proposed to optimize RES integration and improve power system stability. Kantorovich distance metrics were applied to reduce computational load in stochastic generation scenarios. The project results are documented through scientific publications and analytical reports.