AP25797039 – Enhancing project management efficiency in Kazakhstan's oil and gas sector: the impact of risk attitude on qualitative risk assessment

Objective of the project – Modernization of technology and methodology development for FTIR-spectroscopic research to obtain fundamental data on the properties of hydrocarbon fuels at low temperatures (77 K) and atmospheric pressure (101325 Pa, 1 atm.).

Relevance: The relevance of this project is driven by the key role of the oil and gas sector in Kazakhstan’s economy, accounting for about a quarter of the country’s GDP. Despite the implementation of a project-based approach, a significant number of projects fail to meet deadlines and budget targets, as confirmed by international studies. The main reason for project failure is ineffective risk management. A particular issue is the subjectivity of qualitative risk assessment, which depends on the individual risk attitudes of experts. Moreover, existing standards such as PMBOK do not fully consider the specific conditions of Kazakhstan’s oil and gas industry. Therefore, the project is highly relevant as it aims to reduce subjectivity in risk assessment and improve project management efficiency in this strategically important sector.

Scientific supervisor: Master of Technical Sciences, Zhanar Berikovna Baybusinova

Expected and achieved results: Within the project, a survey instrument for quantitative research was developed and successfully tested through a pilot study. Based on the pilot results, the instrument was refined and improved. The questionnaire consists of four key sections: demographic data, assessment of respondents’ risk attitudes, evaluation of 12 risk factors in terms of controllability, and assessment of their impact under different scenarios. This structure enabled the collection of comprehensive and multidimensional data necessary to test the proposed hypotheses. The developed instrument provides higher accuracy and objectivity in qualitative risk assessment. This is achieved by accounting for individual differences among experts and normalizing their judgments. The application of the questionnaire made it possible to identify systematic biases in expert evaluations. The obtained results contribute to improving the quality of managerial decision-making in risk management. Overall, the developed methodology forms a foundation for practical recommendations and the improvement of risk management processes in the oil and gas industry.